Bulgarian currency board project

The project is based on a series of nationally representative surveys in Bulgaria that track public attitudes toward the monetary system and the transition process more broadly. The surveys have been custom-designed to address monetary and financial questions for which data are not readily available such as expectations, preferences, and other public attitudes relevant to the economy.

The first survey was implemented in 1997 before the introduction of the Bulgarian currency board to study its impact on inflation expectations. A follow-up survey after one year documented the ongoing convergence of expectations. Later surveys have investigated the determinants of currency substitution, the long-term impacts of the hyperinflation in 1997, the credibility of the currency board, preferences over various exchange rate regimes, support for the euro, support for structural reforms, and other issues.

Funding

I have received research grants for this project from the following agencies:

Center for International Business Education and Research, Purdue University

Center of International Studies, University of Delaware

International Research and Exchanges Board

National Council on Eurasia and East European Research

National Science Foundation



Papers

The following papers have been written using the survey data:

“Safety in Numbers: Bailouts and the Decision to Join the EMU” (with Menna Bizuneh) Comparative Economic Studies, forthcoming.

“Inflation Uncertainty and the Decision to Devalue” (with Menna Bizuneh) Review of International Economics, forthcoming.

“The Effect of Loss Experiences in a Banking Crisis on Future Expectations and Behavior,” (with Shannon Mudd and Konstantin Pashev), The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2010, 10(1).

“The Hysteresis of Currency Substitution: Currency Risk vs. Network Externalities,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 2010, 29(2), 224-235.

“Fixed Exchange Rate Credibility with Heterogeneous Expectations,” (with John Carlson) Journal of Macroeconomics, 2008, 30(4), 1712–1722.

“Beliefs about Exchange Rate Stability: Survey Evidence from the Currency Board in Bulgaria,” (with John Carlson) Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 2007, 10(2), 111-121.

“From a Currency Board to the Euro: Public Attitudes toward Unilateral Euroization in Bulgaria,” Comparative Economic Studies, 2006, 48, 480-496.

“No Pain, Non Gain: Market Reform, Unemployment and Politics in Bulgaria,” Journal of Comparative Economics, September 2004, 32(3), 409-425.

“A Disinflation Tradeoff: Speed versus Final Destination,” (with John Carlson) Economic Inquiry, July 2002, 40(3), 450-56.

“Credibility of a New Monetary Regime: The Currency Board in Bulgaria,” (with John Carlson) Journal of Monetary Economics, June 2001, 47(3), 581-94.

The data and the questionnaires from the surveys are available on request.

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